By Glenn Concepcion
In a recent analysis published in Nature, a team of international researchers warns that a global retreat from agricultural science is a primary driver of rising food prices.
The study, authored by scientists from the University of Minnesota, the Alliance of Bioversity International and the International Center for Tropical Agriculture, the University of California Davis, and the the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, reveals that while the world’s population grew by 80% between 1980 and 2021, the growth in “real spending” on agrifood research and development (R&D) has slowed significantly. The data shows that between 1980 and 2015, global agrifood R&D spending grew at an average of 2.7% per year. However, from 2015 to 2021, this rate plummeted to just 1.9%.
This stagnation is widespread: growth slowed in more than half of the world’s countries, and in one-third of them, absolute spending declined. For low-income countries, the trend is even more acute, with 57% reducing their real spending since 2015.
The authors highlight that the benefits of agricultural investment are subject to massive time-lags. It typically takes 6–10 years just to breed new varieties of wheat or soybeans, with many more years required for widespread farmer adoption.
Furthermore, yield growth is becoming harder to sustain due to biological limits and climate extremes. The analysis notes that while it took only 20 years to increase global rice yields by 50% in the 1960s, it now takes 40 years. For wheat, the time required for a 50% increase has jumped from 12 years to 31 years.
Despite the slowdown, the economic case for R&D remains powerful: every dollar invested yields a total social return of roughly $10. However, because the results of this research take decades to materialize, political leaders often prioritize programs with immediate impacts.
The study urges that if the world is to meet the demand for food and fuel by 2050, global R&D funds should be doubled immediately. Failing to do so will result in a resurgence of malnutrition, poverty, and environmental damage.
Read the study:
Philip G. Pardey, Connie Chan-Kang, Gert-Jan Stads, Yuan Chai, Julian M. Alston, Jan Greyling, and Hernán Muñoz
Food will be more affordable — if we double funds for agriculture research now
Nature 648, 271-274 (2025)
https://doi.org/10.1038/d41586-025-03970-0
